Prokek Crest: bracket the truth and learn how sure you really are

Every question in Prokek Crest asks for a quantity, and you answer with a range. Two handles slide along a logarithmic axis, so each step covers a multiplier rather than a fixed amount. The readout shows your bounds in plain words, such as 91.8 thousand to 6.3 million, and a pill tells you how wide the bracket is: 68.7x in that pixel example. Thinking in orders of magnitude is the skill the axis forces on you.

After you set the bracket, you choose 60%, 75% or 90%. Each level carries a multiplier shown on screen; at 90% the caption reads that it is worth x1.25 if the truth is inside your brackets. The scoring rewards precision. A narrow bracket that catches the truth scores high, a wide one scores little, and a confident miss scores zero. On the result screen, a pin marks the true value and you see it either inside your brackets or outside them.

The Calibration tab turns those rounds into evidence. Filter by Last 20, Last 50 or All, then read each band separately: what you said, what actually landed, and the gap labelled overconfident or underconfident. A band needs 5 rounds before it means anything. A separate figure, typical distance from the truth, expresses accuracy as a multiplier such as 3x, so you can see whether your midpoints run high or low.